Next week, UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden is set to deliver one of the most anticipated matchups in mixed martial arts history. The stakes are high as Jon Jones faces Stipe Miocic in a heavyweight showdown that will define the future of the division. Jones is widely considered the greatest fighter of all time, and he’s favored to win this fight—but don’t be surprised if Stipe Miocic walks out as the new heavyweight champion.
I’m not here to disrespect Jon Jones, but there’s a real case to be made that Stipe Miocic, the former UFC heavyweight champion, can absolutely beat Jon Jones. If you think this is going to be an easy fight for Jones, you might want to rethink things. Stipe is an enormous threat and, frankly, he’s being overlooked in this fight. Let’s break down why Stipe Miocic is a live underdog, and why Jon Jones’ return to heavyweight might not go according to plan.
Stipe Miocic: The Underdog with a Point to Prove
Right now, according to the odds, Jon Jones is the heavy favorite, sitting at -600, while Stipe Miocic is a +440 underdog. On paper, Jon Jones is the better fighter, and there’s no doubt that his resume speaks for itself. But here’s the problem: people have forgotten who Stipe Miocic is.
The last time we saw Stipe in action was at UFC 260 in March 2021, where he suffered a brutal knockout loss to Francis Ngannou. That knockout was vicious, and it’s what most people remember when they think of Stipe Miocic now. But that’s a mistake. That’s one fight. And it was against a man who is currently considered one of the hardest hitters in MMA history. Stipe Miocic is still one of the greatest heavyweights the UFC has ever seen.
Let’s not forget, Stipe is a two-time UFC heavyweight champion and the first man in UFC history to successfully defend the heavyweight title three times. He’s beaten legends like Daniel Cormier, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Mark Hunt. In fact, Stipe has a win over Francis Ngannou (in their first fight), and he knocked out Fabricio Werdum with a perfectly timed shot to become the UFC heavyweight champion.
People may have forgotten that, but Stipe’s body of work is undeniable. He’s got the experience, the skills, and the power to make this a dangerous fight for Jon Jones.
Why Stipe Miocic CAN Beat Jon Jones
So, how can Stipe Miocic pull off the upset and become the first man to defeat Jon Jones at heavyweight? There are several key factors working in Stipe’s favor that people are overlooking:
Natural Heavyweight Power:
Jon Jones has been known for his fight IQ, technique, and overall versatility. He’s an incredible fighter, no doubt about it. But one thing he doesn’t have is true one-punch knockout power. While Jon has been dominant at light heavyweight, he’s never been a guy who can end a fight with a single shot like some of the legends in the heavyweight division. Stipe, on the other hand, is a natural heavyweight with devastating power in both hands. He’s knocked out Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Mark Hunt with his hands alone. If Stipe connects with Jon’s chin, he can finish the fight—it’s as simple as that.
Cardio & Experience at Heavyweight:
Jon Jones’ move to heavyweight has been a big story leading up to this fight. He’s put on muscle, bulked up, and has been training to handle the demands of a heavier weight class. But the reality is, when you move up in weight, it’s not just about getting bigger—it’s about dealing with the added pressure and the potential slowdown of your gas tank. Stipe Miocic is a natural heavyweight. He’s fought and won five-round battles against the best of the best. He’s been in deep waters before and knows how to push the pace for all five rounds. We haven’t seen Jon Jones in a heavyweight fight that goes deep into the later rounds. Will his cardio hold up when he’s carrying 30-40 extra pounds of muscle? That’s a big question mark
Stipe’s Wrestling & Takedown Defense:
Jon Jones is widely regarded as one of the best wrestlers in MMA, and his ability to mix in wrestling with his striking is one of his most dangerous attributes. But here’s the thing—Stipe Miocic is no slouch in the wrestling department either. He’s fought and beaten some of the best wrestlers in the division, including Daniel Cormier, who was one of the best in the game. In their second fight, Stipe stuffed several of DC’s takedown attempts and even got back to his feet after being taken down. Don’t expect Jon Jones to be able to just steamroll Stipe with his wrestling. Stipe’s got the strength to stop takedowns, and if he can keep the fight standing, he can dictate the pace and punish Jon with his power.
Stipe’s Mental Edge & Motivation:
Stipe Miocic is not just another heavyweight contender—he’s a two-time world champion with a point to prove. After being overlooked for so long, after people questioning whether he’s past his prime, Stipe is going to bring an unmatched level of hunger and focus into this fight. This is a man who feels disrespected. He’s coming off a long layoff, he’s been training hard, and he’s ready to make his mark on the sport again. Jon Jones might be the favorite, but Stipe has the motivation to shock the world. He wants to remind everyone why he’s considered one of the greatest heavyweights to ever do it.
The Jon Jones Factor: Will He Live Up to the Hype?
Let’s be real—Jon Jones is still Jon Jones. He’s probably the most skilled fighter to ever step into the octagon. He has a ridiculous fight IQ, a never-ending arsenal of tools at his disposal, and an incredible ability to adapt mid-fight. But Jones has also had questionable performances in the past. We all remember his close fights with Dominick Reyes and Thiago Santos—fights where he arguably could have lost. And yes, Jones has always had a tendency to fight down to the level of his competition. But can he afford to do that against a fighter like Stipe, who’s hungry, motivated, and coming in with an arsenal of his own?
Another question mark for Jon is his ability to handle the heavyweight division’s physicality. We’ve seen him in dominant performances at light heavyweight, but at heavyweight, there’s a bigger weight class, stronger athletes, and more power. Is Jon ready for that? The truth is, we don’t know.
Conclusion: Don’t Be Surprised If Stipe Wins
Jon Jones may be the favorite, but don’t be surprised if Stipe Miocic wins. Stipe has the power, the cardio, the wrestling, and the mentality to pull off the upset. This is a man who has been fighting for years, overcoming incredible odds, and now he has a massive chip on his shoulder. He’s ready to prove everyone wrong.
So, when the dust settles at Madison Square Garden and Stipe Miocic is holding the UFC Heavyweight Championship once again, don’t say you weren’t warned. This fight is going to be a classic, and I can’t wait to see it unfold.
What do you think? Is Jon Jones too much for Stipe? Or will the Croatian-American come through and shock the world? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and hit that bell icon so you don’t miss our upcoming breakdowns leading into this huge fight. UFC 309 is almost here!
